A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
